TITLE:
Computing Confidence Intervals for the Postal Service’s Cost-Elasticity Estimates
AUTHORS:
Bzhilyanskaya Y. Lyudmila, Margaret M. Cigno, Soiliou D. Namoro
KEYWORDS:
Volume Variability, Confidence Interval, Ratio Parameter, Delta Method, Fieller Method
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Statistics,
Vol.11 No.5,
September
28,
2021
ABSTRACT: This
paper provides methods for assessing the precision of cost elasticity estimates
when the underlying regression function is assumed to be polynomial.
Specifically, the paper adapts two well-known methods for computing
confidential intervals for ratios: the delta-method and the Fieller method. We
show that performing the estimation with mean-centered explanatory variables
provides a straightforward way to estimate the elasticity and compute a
confidence interval for it. A theoretical discussion of the proposed methods is
provided, as well as an empirical example based on publicly available postal
data. Possible areas of application include postal service providers worldwide,
transportation and electricity.