TITLE:
Numerical Analysis and Transformative Predictions of Fractional Order Epidemic Model during COVID-19 Pandemic: A Critical Study from Bangladesh
AUTHORS:
Ovijit Chandrow, Neloy Chandra Das, Niloy Chandra Shil, Niloy Dey, Md. Tareque Rahaman
KEYWORDS:
COVID-19, Bangladesh, Fractional Order SIR Model, Laplace Adomian Decomposition Method, BRN
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics,
Vol.9 No.9,
September
16,
2021
ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic is a curse and a threat to global health, development, the economy, and peaceful society because of its massive transmission and high rates of mutation. More than 220 countries have been affected by COVID-19. The world is now facing a drastic situation because of this ongoing virus. Bangladesh is also dealing with this issue, and due to its dense population, it is particularly vulnerable to the spread of COVID-19. Recently, many non-linear systems have been proposed to solve the SIR (Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered) model for predicting Coronavirus cases. In this paper, we have discussed the fractional order SIR epidemic model of a non-fatal disease in a population of a constant size. Using the Laplace Adomian Decomposition method, we get an approximate solution to the model. To predict the dynamic transmission of COVID-19 in Bangladesh, we provide a numerical argument based on real data. We also conducted a comparative analysis among susceptible, infected, and recovered people. Furthermore, the most sensitive parameters for the Basic Reproduction Number (R0) are graphically presented, and the impact of the compartments on the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic is thoroughly investigated.