TITLE:
Modelling the Current and Future Spatial Distribution Area of Shea Tree (Vittelaria paradoxa C. F. Gaertn) in the Context of Climate Change in Benin
AUTHORS:
Yasminath Judith Follone Avaligbé, Faki Oyédékpo Chabi, Césaire Paul Gnanglè, Orou Daouda Bello, Ibouraïma Yabi, Léonard Ahoton, Aliou Saïdou
KEYWORDS:
Bioclimatic Variables, Agroforestry, Scenario Analysis, Adaptation Strategy, Conservation
JOURNAL NAME:
American Journal of Climate Change,
Vol.10 No.3,
September
2,
2021
ABSTRACT: In Benin, Shea tree (Vitellaria paradoxa) is one of the agroforestry species of great socio-economic importance for local populations. Given the actual variation in the climate parameters, it is necessary to anticipate the future spatial distribution of Shea trees as an adaptation strategy and for designing relevant conservation strategies. The aim of the present research was to evaluate the influence of climate change on the distribution areas of Shea trees in Benin. Occurrence data consisting of geographic coordinates of Shea trees in Benin as well as bioclimatic variables were recorded. Furthemore, additional presence points were collected from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database website. Current and future environmental data for the study area were obtained from the Africlim website. Bioclimatic variables (moisture and temperature), monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and annual rainfall were collected from Worldclim synoptic stations website for the period 1970-2000. The aridity index was created from the potential evapotranspiration (PET) and annual rainfall, using spatial analysis tools of ArcGIS. The impact of current and future environmental conditions on favourable Shea trees’ growing area was assessed following the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach under two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Under the current climate conditions, 80% of Benin territory and 79% of the protected areas were highly favourable for Shea trees growing and conservation. However, all climate scenarios projected the significant decrease of 14% to 19% of the distribution of favourable for Shea tree growing area and 26% to 30% of the protected areas by 2055 in favour of non-favourable for the trees’ distribution. The protection of habitats favourable for the species development, coupled with a quick restoration of the species through the use of appropriate vegetative propagation techniques are required to sustain the species’ conservation in Benin and maintain farmers’ livelihood.