TITLE:
Contributing Factors for Delays during the Morning Commute Hours and the Impact of the Spread of COVID-19 for Metropolitan Train Lines in Japan
AUTHORS:
Keigo Ohshima, Kayoko Yamamoto
KEYWORDS:
Train Delay, Morning Rush Hour, Train Line Network, COVID-19, Statistical Analysis, Standard Multiple Regression Analysis, Logistic Regression Analysis
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Transportation Technologies,
Vol.11 No.4,
August
31,
2021
ABSTRACT: The present study aims to conduct 2 types of statistical analysis to
reveal the impact of the spread of COVID-19 on train delays by comparing the
potential contributing factors before, during and after the outbreak of the
virus in the metropolitan train lines in Japan. First of all, the result of the
present study clearly revealed the changes in contributing factors for train
delays caused by the spread of COVID-19. Specifically, the contributing factors
for train delays changed due to the decrease of passengers by the effect of the
outbreak of the virus. Additionally, though large terminal stations were
considered to be a major contributing factor in causing and increasing train
delays in the past, this was not the case after the spread of COVID-19.
Therefore, under such conditions, it is more effective to make improvements in
small to medium stations and tracks rather than terminal stations. Furthermore,
as the decrease in passengers also decreased train delays in commuter lines
going to the suburbs due to the spread of COVID-19, the contributing factor for
such lines is the excessive number of passengers. Therefore, as for
countermeasures for train delays after the effects of COVID-19, it is necessary
to disperse passengers in order to avoid passengers concentrating in the same
time zones and train lines.