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Grundy, C., Steinbach, R., Edwards, P., Green, J., Armstrong, B. and Wilkinson, P. (2009) Effect of 20 mph Traffic Speed Zones on Road Injuries in London, 1986-2006: Controlled Interrupted Time Series Analysis. BMJ, 339, b4469.
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.b4469

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• TITLE: Modelling HIV/AIDS Cases in Zambia: A Comparative Study of the Impact of Mandatory HIV Testing

  AUTHORS: Edwin Moyo, James C. Shakalima, Gilbert Chambashi, James Muchinga, Levy K. Matindih

  KEYWORDS: Counterfactual Forecasting, Box-Jenkins Methodology, ARIMA Model, Auto-correlation Function, Partial Autocorrelation Function

  JOURNAL NAME: Open Journal of Statistics, Vol.11 No.3, June 25, 2021

  ABSTRACT: In this study, a time series modeling approach is used to determine an ARIMA model and advance counterfactual forecasting at a point of policy intervention. We consider monthly data of HIV/AIDS cases from the Ministry of Health (Copperbelt province) of Zambia, for the period 2010 to 2019 and have a total of 120 observations. Results indicate that ARIMA (1, 0, 0) is an adequate model which best fits the HIV/AIDS time series data and is, therefore, suitable for forecasting cases. The model predicts a reduction from an average of 3500 to 3177 representing 14.29% in HIV/AIDS cases from 2017 (year of policy activation) to 2019, but the actual recorded cases dropped from 3500 to 1514 accounting for 57.4% in the same time frame.