TITLE:
Probabilistic Modeling of Oil Spills at the Exclusive Economic Zone of Cuba Using Petromar-3D Model
AUTHORS:
Alejandro Rodríguez, Dayron Chang, Amilcar E. Calzada, Dayana Carracedo, Dailín Reyes, Alexander Lobaina, Reinaldo Casals, Jessica Hernández, Javier Cabrales
KEYWORDS:
Oil Spill Modeling, Petromar, Lagrangian Model, Probabilistic Modeling
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection,
Vol.9 No.6,
June
10,
2021
ABSTRACT: This
article shows the probabilistic modeling of hydrocarbon spills on the surface
of the sea, using climatology data of oil spill trajectories yielded by
applying the lagrangian model PETROMAR-3D. To achieve this goal, several
computing and statistical tools were used to develop the probabilistic modeling
solution based in the methodology of Guo. Solution was implemented using a
databases approach and SQL language. A case study is presented which is based
on a hypothetical spill in a location inside the Exclusive Economic Zone of
Cuba. Important outputs and products of probabilistic modeling were obtained,
which are very useful for decision-makers and operators in charge to face oil
spill accidents and prepare contingency plans to minimize its effects. In order
to study the relationship between the initial trajectory and the arrival of
hydrocarbons spills to the coast, a new approach is introduced as an incoming
perspective for modeling. It consists in storage in databases the direction of
movement of the oil slick at the first 24 hours. The probabilistic modeling
solution presented is of great importance for hazard studies of oil spills in
Cuban coastal areas.