TITLE:
A Mathematical Model for Covid-19 Disease Transmission Dynamics with Impact of Saturated Treatment: Modeling, Analysis and Simulation
AUTHORS:
Idisi I. Oke, Yakub T. Oyebo, Olamide F. Fakoya, Vigbe S. Benson, Yusuf T. Tunde
KEYWORDS:
Coronavirus, Basic Reproduction Number, Equilibrium Solutions, Stability Analysis, Backward Bifurcation
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Access Library Journal,
Vol.8 No.5,
May
28,
2021
ABSTRACT: The emergence of novel coronavirus (Covid-19) in 2019 sprung a sudden outbreak across the globe, presenting clinical and public health management challenges which led to global cancellation of conferences, travel restrictions, social distancing and closure of institutions. Thus, in considering the grave implications of the continuous spread of coronavirus disease, a SEIHRD epidemic model was formulated to gain insight into disease transmission dynamics with impacts of proposing control measures. The model captures the impact of undetected infectious individuals and detected hospitalized individuals with saturated treatment on the spread, death and recovery of Covid-19 patients in Nigeria. The model epidemic threshold and equilibria are determined, and their stabilities are analyzed. The model is validated by fitting it to data from January 28 to December 5, 2020. Results obtained suggest that decreasing the transmission rate for infective alone is not sufficient to eradicate the disease because of the presence of backward bifurcation, and we recommend that Nigerians must also adhere strictly to Covid-19 protocols in mitigating the spread and demise of coronavirus.