TITLE:
Application of Rescaled Range Analysis Method to Ship Flow in Container Ports: Time Series Structure and Long-Range Dependence Analysis
AUTHORS:
Jiahui Sun, Chanjuan Liu, Siqin Yu
KEYWORDS:
International Logistics, Container Ports, Time Series Analysis, Rescaled Range Analysis, Long-Range Dependence
JOURNAL NAME:
Modern Economy,
Vol.12 No.5,
May
26,
2021
ABSTRACT: Based on the time series of the number of ships
calling at the container port, this paper takes Shanghai Port and Singapore
Port as examples to analyze the statistical characteristics of ship flow time
series in container ports. Then, the rescaled range analysis (R/S) method is
used to study the long-range dependence (LRD) of ship flow sequence structure
in maritime container ports and further analyze the influence of trend
component and periodic component on Hurst exponent. The results indicate that
both the ship flow time series of Shanghai Port and Singapore Port show the
feature of nonlinear and nonstationary from 2013 to 2017, and the data of the
two ports have sudden changes in August 2016. They all show specific long-range
dependence behavior, but the long-range dependence of ship flow series in
Singapore Port is relatively weak. Besides, the trend component and periodic
component have significant impact on the Hurst exponent of the time series.
Hence the trend component and periodic component should be removed in advance
for long-range dependence analysis.