TITLE:
System Simulation and Policy Response: Long-Term Care Needs of the Elderly with Disabilities in China (2021-2050)
AUTHORS:
Qiyini Ma, Hong Mi
KEYWORDS:
Long-Term Care, Elderly Disability, SSAPUR, Forecasting Cost, Policy Design
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Social Sciences,
Vol.9 No.5,
May
25,
2021
ABSTRACT: Background: In the near future, pressures on long-term care (LTC) are expected to grow with demographic transition. Higher demand for formal services is emerging in China also because of people’s expectations for high-quality care. This study aims to provide quantitative estimates of the associated LTC financial liability in the medium to long run to 2050, and is expected to further facilitate policy design on national LTC systems, which begin to be formulated and debated. Methods: We first analyze the health status of Chinese elderly through the Sample Survey of the Aged Population in Urban and Rural China (SSAPUR) in 2015, 2016 and 2017, the largest database of research on aging in China. Subsequently, we estimate LTC needs and the government’s financial burden for the next 3 decades according Qingdao model. Results: The average elderly disability rate is 4.4% in 2015-2017, and the gender differences (3.9% for males, 4.67% for females), disparities between rural and urban areas, age differences exist. The proportion of public expenditure on long-term care costs will increase from 0.35 percent in 2021 to 0.68 percent in 2050, and that of proportion in GDP will increase from 0.1 percent to 0.2 percent. Conclusions: Compared with OECD countries, China’s LTC system started late and developed relatively slowly. The “policy window” between 2021 and 2036 is critical for China in developing LTC policies. In the period of “gradually getting wealthy and quickly getting old”, policy-makers should give priority to achieve “healthy aging” instead of “survival aging”.