TITLE:
Methods for Determining the Epicenter of Strong Earthquake
AUTHORS:
Giulio Riga, Paolo Balocchi
KEYWORDS:
Dynamicepicenter, Mainshock, Seismic Sequence
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Earthquake Research,
Vol.10 No.2,
May
7,
2021
ABSTRACT: The
analysis of seismic sequences is the primary objective for the study of the
evolution of seismicity in a particular area, in order to determine a greater
awareness of its seismogenic potential. The eventual determination of the
epicenters of future earthquakes associated with the expected magnitude can be
the tool to better seismic prevention. In this paper, we present some
procedures for epicenter prediction of a strong earthquake, developed after a
careful analysis of the fluctuations of latitude and longitude values in time
and space and distance, between seismic events occurred
in a specific area. By analyzing several seismic sequences, whose data have
been taken from the numerous catalogs on seismicity, we noticed that the
epicenters of the earthquakes that precede the strongest ones, tend to converge
towards the epicenter where the strong earthquake will happen, following a
pattern and a repetitive directional trend. Analysis of the pattern and trend,
which represent the fluctuation of events and distances between pairs of
earthquakes, has allowed us to localize the epicentral area of a future
earthquake, which more reliably complements the other forecasting methods we
have developed in the past. Retrospective tests performed on past seismic
sequences have shown that the predictive procedures developed are able to
identify in a simple way and in the short term, the area where a strong earthquake
is most likely to occur.