TITLE:
The Future Common Ancestry of All Present-Day Humans
AUTHORS:
Philip M. Service
KEYWORDS:
Genealogy, Common Ancestry, Human Population Structure, Random Migration, Hierarchical Migration
JOURNAL NAME:
Natural Science,
Vol.13 No.4,
April
13,
2021
ABSTRACT: At
some future time, each person alive today will be either an ancestor of
everyone or an ancestor of no one. If the global population were unstructured
by geography, race, religion and other factors, the time to future common
ancestry for present-day humans would be between 33 and 66 generations, or
about 1000 - 2000 years. In a structured population, migration and
intermarriage are the necessary conditions for global common ancestry.
Simulation of random and hierarchical migration models, shows that time to
future global ancestry is generally less than triple, and often less than
twice, that required for an unstructured population. The models suggest that
someone alive today will become a common ancestor of the entire world
population by about 5000 CE, or sooner; and that all current humans who are
destined to become global common ancestors will be so by about 8000 CE, or
sooner. At which time, everybody then alive will have the exact same
genealogical ancestors from the present day.