TITLE:
Mathematical Modelling of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Northern Ireland in 2020
AUTHORS:
Peter A. Hall, Gabor Kiss, Tilman Kuhn, Salissou Moutari, Ellen Patterson, Emily Smith
KEYWORDS:
Pandemic, Epidemic, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, Compartmental Model, SEIR Model, Basic Reproduction Number, Effective Reproduction Number, Parameter Estimates, Fitted Model
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation,
Vol.9 No.2,
April
12,
2021
ABSTRACT: In this study, we investigate the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in
Northern Ireland from 1st March 2020 up to 25th
December 2020, using several copies of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered
(SEIR) compartmental
model, and compare it to a detailed publicly available dataset. We split the data into 10 time
intervals and fit the models on the consecutive intervals to the cumulative
number of confirmed positive cases on each interval. Using the fitted parameter
estimates, we also provide estimates of the reproduction number. We also discuss the limitations and possible
extensions of the employed model.