TITLE:
Can Purchase Restrictions Really Limit House Prices
AUTHORS:
Yanhua Shao
KEYWORDS:
Restricted Purchases, Residential Prices, Double-Differences, Disincentive Effects
JOURNAL NAME:
Modern Economy,
Vol.12 No.2,
February
22,
2021
ABSTRACT: This article uses the data of residential commercial
housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities from 2007 to 2017, and on
the basis of controlling the covariates that can affect housing prices on the
demand side and the supply side. The method of double difference is used to
study the two rounds of purchase restriction policies, that is, in 2010, the first round of purchase restriction policies
promulgated by local governments from 20111 and the second round of purchase
restrictions promulgated in 2016 have their respective effects on residential
commercial housing prices and price growth rates. The regression results of the
benchmark fixed-effects model show that the implementation of the first round
of purchase restriction policies in cities can significantly reduce the price
of residential commercial houses, and the long-term effects of the purchase
restriction policies are relatively weak. Because there may be a certain
reverse causality between the implementation of the purchase restriction policy
and the city’s housing prices, this paper introduces the lag value of the
explained variable as the instrumental variable of the purchase restriction
policy, and uses the dynamic panel instrumental variable method to perform
regression analysis. In addition, there may also be the problem of sample
selection bias, that is, for the difference between the treatment group and the
control group, this article first uses the propensity score matching method to
determine the appropriate covariate, and then matches the treatment group to
the appropriate control group, And finally perform double-difference regression
analysis to reduce the bias of sample selectivity. In the analysis of
heterogeneity, this paper divides the samples according to the different conditions
of housing prices and housing price growth rates, and verifies whether there is
a difference in the impact of the purchase restriction policy on the cities
with excessively high housing prices, rapid housing prices, and high and rapid
housing prices. At the
same time, we will return to cities in the eastern, central and western regions
to explore whether there are regional differences in the effect of the purchase
restriction policy. Finally, through a series of robustness tests, the
robustness of the conclusions of this article is demonstrated.