TITLE:
How to Win the House: NBA Odds Analysis and Predictions
AUTHORS:
Wenpeng Di, Bin Yuan, Haiyi Wen
KEYWORDS:
NBA Ranking, Linear Regressions, Dummy Variable
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Social Sciences,
Vol.9 No.2,
February
19,
2021
ABSTRACT: In recent
years, odd-making systems, from automated bookmakers and computer casino software to sophisticated market-research
tools for betting and investment, have increasingly
sought to capture the most accurate spread of outcome probabilities, and so betting
odds have been increasingly dominated by algorithms for generating the spread (Spann & Skiera, 2009). This study analyzes NBA betting spreads and odds in the 2016-2017 season
to investigate the degree to which these odds have succeeded in capturing the spread
of the game in real-life. In this paper, models are developed by the method of multiple
linear regression to predict the results of the game based on the team’s past performance.
The model can help bookmakers optimize their algorithms. By reading this paper can
also help the normal players with weak statistical base understand how the game works.