TITLE:
Empirical Models for Predicting Global Solar Radiation on the African Continent Based on Factors of Location and Season
AUTHORS:
Olabode M. Bamigbola, Shola E. Atolagbe
KEYWORDS:
Solar Radiation, Modelling, Empirical Data, Prediction, Interpolation
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation,
Vol.9 No.1,
January
21,
2021
ABSTRACT: The importance of accurate knowledge about available global solar
radiation in the design and development of various solar energy systems cannot
be overemphasized. Most of the available models for predicting global solar
radiation involve a plethora of input factors, some of which require special
skills and equipment to measure. Such multi-factor models are complex and
computationally demanding. To remove some burdens associated with such models,
the use of simplified prototypes with
reduced input factors has been proposed. It has been shown
that a model with fewer input factors, that can be determined in a definite
manner or whose attributes are directly observable, is often a better
alternative. Therefore, the main object of this paper is to have models with a
few variables that can easily be measured, developed for predicting global
solar radiation. Two input factors, geographical location and
season of the year, were considered. Using a 22-year interannual average
daily insolation data from the database of the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration (NASA) blended with the art of interpolation, empirical models
were fashioned with the data for the five subregions of Africa. The
results of the models’ analysis indicate that the latitude component is the
dominant locational factor. Furthermore, the new models exhibit optimal
performance in comparison with existing models and constitute reliable predictive tools that are suitable for estimating
global solar radiation for any practical application.