TITLE:
Modeling the Socio-Economic Impacts of Covid-19 Using an Improved Traditional Travel Demand Model
AUTHORS:
Mehrnaz Doustmohammadi, Phillip Ligrani, Michael Anderson
KEYWORDS:
COVID-19, Travel Modeling, Traffic Patterns, Traffic Planning
JOURNAL NAME:
Current Urban Studies,
Vol.8 No.4,
December
31,
2020
ABSTRACT: The
emergence of the COVID-19 virus and subsequent pandemic has caused
unprecedented disruption across many aspects of life across the globe. The
implications have necessitated a re-evaluation of travel demand models to
include the effects that mass isolation and quarantines have on roadway
networks. The present paper is focused on data and methodologies to change
travel demand models to account for differences encountered during the COVID-19
pandemic. Increased telecommunicating, coupled with store closures and
restrictions, within the majority of business categories, has drastically
changed traffic patterns. The results indicate that travel has decreased
significantly, as businesses have altered their operating practices, requiring
employees to work from home due to the restrictions implemented by the
government. The present methodology considers a variety of potential
alterations to travel patterns resulting from the presence of COVID-19. Because
different amounts of reduced employment and increased telecommuting are
considered, the present methodology and associated analysis show that different
strategies proposed or implemented by the government can be modeled. The
results provided in this paper, and the associated model, thus provide a means
to account for the new traffic modelling
reality resulting from the presence of COVID-19. Such travel modeling is
important in regard to forecasts of future travel demand, associated
transportation planning, allocation of present and future transportation
resources, resulting economic benefits and challenges, and the well-being of
our society, as an operationally efficient transportation network, and the
associated quality of life, are maintained.