TITLE:
Modelling the Growth Trend of the Iron and Steel Industry: Case for Uganda
AUTHORS:
Abraham J. B. Muwanguzi, Patrick Olowo, Hennery Sebukeera, Asuman Guloba, Damir Mezulic, Paolo Bonci, Joseph Muvawala
KEYWORDS:
Economic Model, DSGEs, Economic Growth, Economic Development, NPA, Uganda
JOURNAL NAME:
American Journal of Industrial and Business Management,
Vol.10 No.9,
September
29,
2020
ABSTRACT: The iron and steel industry is critical in driving the industrialisation agenda of 3rd world economies like Uganda and there is need to understand its growth trends in order to inform the required investments in the medium to long-term. The Capability Model and the system of equations of the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models (DSGEs) were employed to forecast the growth trends of Uganda’s iron and steel production and consumption (2019-2024). The results of the study show that liquid steel production can be increased from 210,000 tonnes to 1.1 million tonnes per annum by 2024 with measures of industry sustenance and infrastructure investments put in place. Even though there is projected to be an initial fluctuation between 2020 and 2022, due to interruptions during the period of technological upgrade, there is on average, a distinctive steel production growth over the next 5 years. The study recommends fast-tracking the highlighted public and private sector investments in domestic iron and steel production.