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Kermack, W.O. and McKendrick, A.G. (1927) A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London (A), 115, 700-721.
http://www.jstor.org/stable/94815
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/8012/57f13663c493851d55366b431fad0cc801a9.pdf
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.1927.0118

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