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Li, G., Zhao, J.L. and Su, Y. (2012) Prediction of Handheld Order Volume of World Container Ships Based on ARMA Model. Research on Science and Technology Management, No. 16, 7-11.

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• TITLE: Empirical Study on the Sustainable Development of Domestic Tourism

  AUTHORS: Shichang Shen

  KEYWORDS: Number of Tourists, ARIMA Model, Predictive Analysis

  JOURNAL NAME: Open Journal of Statistics, Vol.10 No.4, August 5, 2020

  ABSTRACT: Taking the number of domestic tourists as the research object, an appropriate model is established to analyze the sustainable development of China’s tourism industry. The number of domestic tourists in China from 1985 to 2015 was taken as a sample, and the ARIMA model was established using Eviews 6.0. Finally, the ARIMA(0, 2, 1) model is established. After testing, the model fits well (MAPE = 7.363) and the prediction accuracy is extremely high (99.56%). The ARIMA model’s short-term prediction of the number of tourists is reasonable.