TITLE:
Analysis of Daily Rainfall in São Carlos/SP, Brazil over 1979-2017 Using Laplace Trend Test
AUTHORS:
Rafael Grecco Sanches, Bruno César Dos Santos, Rodrigo Sanches Miani, Gustavo Zen de Figueiredo Neves, Mauricio Sanches Duarte Silva, Adriano Rogério Bruno Tech
KEYWORDS:
Tropical Climatology, Climate Variability, Rainfall Trends, Statistical Tool, Laplace Trend Test
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection,
Vol.8 No.7,
July
27,
2020
ABSTRACT: Rainfall expresses one of the most complex climate factors in Southeastern Brazil. Understanding the dynamics and temporal trends of rainfall represents a significant challenge due to regional and even global mechanisms, such as FS (Frontal Systems) and the SACZ (South Atlantic Convergence Zone), and the interaction with the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The present study aimed at analyzing the pluviometric tendencies in São Carlos/SP, in the countryside of São Paulo State. Laplace trend test was used to comprehend the temporal evolution of daily rainfall in the region in the historical series 1979-2017, in seven pluviometric stations (climatological or surface stations). Significant fluctuations in interannual trends and between seasons were observed. However, it was noted that the beginning of the 1980s showed positive trends, whereas, as of the year 2000, most of the stations demonstrated negative trends, indicating a reduction in daily rainfall volume due to the great tropical climatic variability of Brazil. Emphasis should also be given to the regional and local effects, such as elevation and urbanization, respectively, which corroborate such differences among the analyzed stations. This methodology is of considerable value for the observation of pluviometric trends, and future studies can validate such a tool in climatological studies.