TITLE:
Precipitation Regime Shift Associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the Maritime Continent
AUTHORS:
V. Kokorev, J. Ettema, P. Siegmund, G. van der Schrier
KEYWORDS:
Regime Shift, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Precipitation, South-East Asia, Bayesian Methods
JOURNAL NAME:
American Journal of Climate Change,
Vol.9 No.2,
June
8,
2020
ABSTRACT: Recent changes in precipitation regime in South-East Asia are a subject of ongoing discussion. In this article, for the first time, evidence of a precipitation regime shift during the mid-1970s in the Northern Hemispheric part of South-East Asia is demonstrated. The detection of regime shifts is made possible by using a new comprehensive dataset of daily precipitation records (South-East Asian Climate Assessment and Dataset) and applying a novel Bayesian approach for regime shift detection. After the detected regime shift event in the mid-1970s, significant changes in precipitation distribution occurred in the Northern Hemispheric regions—Indochina Peninsula and the Philippines. More specifically, dry days became up to 10% more frequent in some regions. However, no precipitation regime shift is detected in Southern Hemisphere regions—Java and Northern Australia, were the number of observed dry days increased gradually.