TITLE:
A Prognostic Model of the Development of Postpartum Purulent-Inflammatory Diseases
AUTHORS:
Olha Bulavenko, Lesia Ostapiuk, Anatolii Voloshinovskii, Victor Rud, Taras Malyi, Oleksii Rud
KEYWORDS:
Postpartum Purulent-Inflammatory Diseases, Prognostic Model, The Method of Logistic Regression, ROC-Analysis
JOURNAL NAME:
International Journal of Clinical Medicine,
Vol.11 No.2,
February
13,
2020
ABSTRACT: Background: Currently, postpartum purulent-inflammatory diseases continue to be a prominent issue in medicine. As a result, numerous scientific publications were devoted to finding the solution to this issue. Primarily these solutions included the idea of optimisation of antibiotic-based disease prevention and therapies. However, the early diagnosis and prognosis of these pathologies were unfortunately overlooked. The Aim of the Study: To build a prognostic model of the development of postpartum purulent-inflammatory diseases. Material and Methods: The main focus of our research was establishment of methods of early diagnosis and prognosis of purulent-inflammatory diseases. The main cohort consisted of 170 women diagnosed with purulent-inflammatory diseases while the control cohort was made of 40 women with an uncomplicated course of pregnancy; patient’s blood serum was analysed using fluorescence spectroscopy. Additionally, we implied a variety of standardised algorithms used during clinical and laboratory examination of the patients with postpartum endometritis. Results: Fluorescence spectra were studied for 40 women of control group and 170 women of the main group. Based on the data obtained using fluorescence spectroscopy and data from clinical and laboratory examinations (extragenital pathology, gynecology-related diseases, risk of miscarriage, surgery, TORCH-infections, colpitis, labour duration > 12 hrs, labour anomalies, maximum blood serum fluorescence spectrum values, fluorescence spectrum ≤ 0.845, age, number of bed days, fetal distress), we have derived a prognostic model of the development of postpartum purulent-inflammatory diseases. Conclusion: As a result, we derived a prognostic model based on the main 13 factors, which contribute to development of postpartum purulent-inflammatory diseases. This model was determined correct with a probability of over 99% (р 2 = 174.74; df = 13).