TITLE:
U.S. National Healthcare Expenditures: Demonstration and Explanation of Cubic Growth Dynamics
AUTHORS:
Jack E. Riggs, Jeffrey C. Hobbs, Gerald R. Hobbs, Todd H. Riggs
KEYWORDS:
Consumer Price Index, Cubic Dynamics, Economic Modeling, National Healthcare Expenditures, Per Capita Healthcare Expenditures, Population, United States
JOURNAL NAME:
Theoretical Economics Letters,
Vol.1 No.3,
November
7,
2011
ABSTRACT: U.S. national healthcare expenditures (NHE) increased from under 28 billion dollars in 1960 to over 1.35 trillion dollars in 2000. This enormous growth threatens the sustainability of the provision of healthcare. By definition, in any year, current NHE must equal population times consumer price index (CPI) times per capita CPI-adjusted constant dollar healthcare expenditures. Linear relationships were observed over time with total population (r2 > 0.99), with CPI (r2 > 0.96), and with per capita CPI-adjusted dollar healthcare expenditures (r2 > 0.98). The finding that those three factors were well described by linear equations suggests that NHE growth should display cubic dynamics over time. NHE from 1960 through 2000 did display cubic growth dynamics (r2 > 0.99). Moreover, actual NHE from 1960 through official U.S. government NHE projections in 2019 also displayed cubic growth dynamics (r2 > 0.99). This model explains why U.S. NHE has displayed cubic growth dynamics and suggests that U.S. NHE will continue to display cubic growth dynamoics as long as increases in population, CPI, and per capita CPI-adjusted constant dollar healthcare expenditures continue to increase reasonably linearly over time.