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Scaife, A.A., Yu Karpechko, A., Baldwin, M.P., Brookshaw, A., Butler, A.H., Eade, R., Gordon, M., MacLachlan, C., Martin, N., Dunstone, N. and Smith, D. (2016) Seasonal Winter Forecasts and the Stratosphere. Atmospheric Science Letters, 17, 51-56.

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• TITLE: Investigating the Apparent Link between Cosmic Ray Muon Flux, Sudden Stratospheric Warming and Dry Season Rainfall over Jamaica

  AUTHORS: Lawrence Patrick Brown, John Charlery, Mitko Voutchkov

  KEYWORDS: Cosmic-Ray Muon Flux, Sudden Stratospheric Warming, Primary Dry Season Rainfall Jamaica

  JOURNAL NAME: Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, Vol.9 No.4, October 28, 2019

  ABSTRACT: The Jamaican primary dry season extends from November-April with the driest period being January-March each year. Examination of the rainfall records over several decades reveal months that experienced a sharp increase in rainfall while sometimes they are drier than normal. During this dry season, some of the weather systems that impact the island significantly are cold fronts, highs pressure systems and troughs that migrate from the mainland USA. Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW) occur routinely north of 60°N and severely impact weather over the North American continent. The islands of the Greater Antilles also experience inclement weather during this period as weather systems migrate southwards and impact the Caribbean. Severe winter weather due to the increase frequency and intensity of storms related to SSW events over North America is important to the Jamaican economy as tourists escape harsh winters by travelling to the island. Predicting the variability of rainfall during the primary dry season is therefore important as it has significant implications for event planning, tourism and agriculture. Cosmic-ray Muon flux has been found to be positively correlated with the atmospheric effective temperature used to indicate the occurrence of SSW events. Current research investigates the relationship between cosmic-ray Muon flux, SSW events and primary dry season rainfall. Our findings suggest that a significant change in rainfall occur over Jamaica during the primary dry season on average 29 days after the central date or on average 15 days after the SSW events end. Our study also suggests apparent similarities in the behaviour of cosmic-ray Muon flux over Jamaica to those when major SSW occurs at high latitudes. We therefore argue that the Muon detectors at low latitudes have practical use with respect to identifying SSWs and merits further study.