TITLE:
Opinion Polls and Statistics Conflict—Time for a Change?
AUTHORS:
Michael D. Nelson
KEYWORDS:
Opinion Poll, Trump, US Election, Statistics, Response Rate
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Political Science,
Vol.9 No.4,
October
16,
2019
ABSTRACT: Generally, in the 2016 United States Presidential
Election, Mr. Trump was underestimated by 6.9% and greater than the margin of error. Against this
background, the paper discusses the shortcomings of the existing methods and
supports the view that a new polling method is needed when related to “opinions”.
Graphs show that the maximum error did not occur at the expected value, nor did
the data align with a normal statistical bell-shaped distribution.
Vulnerabilities exist with combining fact-based statistical analysis with
feeling-based opinions. Basic statistics equations do not cover feeling- based factors, i.e. biases, truthfulness,
competency, nonresponse rates, etc. A comprehensive pollster accuracy study
showed that the most widely used pollsters had significant biases favoring
Democrats over Republicans. The 2016 polling failures illustrate deficiencies
in the existing approach supporting the view that a new methodology is needed
such as Statistical Error Analysis, On-Line Methodology, and others.