TITLE:
A GIS-Based Integrated Model for Exploring Effects of Land Use Changes on Transport Demand: The Case of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
AUTHORS:
Wilfred Gordian Kazaura
KEYWORDS:
Land Use Change, Transport Demand, Integrated Land Use and Transport, GIS-Based Model
JOURNAL NAME:
Current Urban Studies,
Vol.7 No.3,
September
25,
2019
ABSTRACT: Land
use patterns essentially determine activity centre locations and opportunities
for trip generation and attraction. Land uses signify the magnitude of travel
demand and availability of transport patterns influences the
future land uses. A number of literatures on land use and transport interactions show that the effects
of land use change on transport appear to be more direct and stronger than the
reverse. The main cause, in large part, is the important roles of trip
generation and attraction, whose change of spatial distribution basically increases the
number of trips and distances travelled between activity centres. Ignoring
the mutual influences for the change between land use and transportation in
long-term forecasting and planning can lead to decisions with unintended and
undesirable consequences. This is more critical in developing countries cities where long-term
travel demand forecasting and transportation infrastructure planning is seldom
done as well as changes in land use are considerably high compared with the
supply of transport infrastructure. This paper therefore reports upon a
GIS-based integrated land use and transport model developed to determine
effects of land use changes on travel demand. The model is developed based on
vector map layers of the planned land uses, and changes obtained by overlaying
the subsequent layers in ten-year intervals obtained from
satellite images. The model is capable of performing a spatial-temporal analysis of land
uses and illustrating effects on travel demand. The modelling system also
supports analysis of policy measures that alternatively reduce the number of
vehicle trips generated in the planned area.