TITLE:
Estimating the Probability of Earthquake Occurrence and Return Period Using Generalized Linear Models
AUTHORS:
Noora Shrestha
KEYWORDS:
Earthquake, Generalized Linear Model, Gutenberg-Richter Relation, Poisson Regression, Seismic Hazard
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection,
Vol.7 No.9,
September
16,
2019
ABSTRACT: In this paper, the frequency of an
earthquake occurrence and magnitude relationship has been modeled with
generalized linear models for the set of earthquake data of Nepal. A goodness
of fit of a statistical model is applied for generalized linear models and
considering the model selection information criterion, Akaike information
criterion and Bayesian information criterion, generalized Poisson regression
model has been selected as a suitable model for the study. The objective of
this study is to determine the parameters (a and b values), estimate the
probability of an earthquake occurrence and its return period using a Poisson
regression model and compared with the Gutenberg-Richter model. The study
suggests that the probabilities of earthquake occurrences and return periods
estimated by both the models are relatively close to each other. The return
periods from the generalized Poisson regression model are comparatively smaller
than the Gutenberg-Richter model.