TITLE:
Macroeconomic Determinants of Unemployment in Brazil: An ARDL Approach
AUTHORS:
Fabiano Roberto Santos de Lima, Jódiney Benedito Marques
KEYWORDS:
Determinants of Unemployment, Unemployment in Brazil, Granger Causality, ARDL Models
JOURNAL NAME:
Modern Economy,
Vol.10 No.7,
July
19,
2019
ABSTRACT: Brazilian society today faces a serious
macroeconomic problem that is the high rate of unemployment. With persistent
stagnation of growth, it is concluded that the resumption of jobs will not be
something verifiable in the short term, requiring actions that can boost the
growth of the product with the improvement of the business environment. The
purpose of this paper is to analyze
empirically the long-term relationships between aggregate unemployment,
monetary policy instruments, exports and direct investments in the country. For
this, the econometric strategy used is the approach by ARDL models with
causality test developed by Toda and Yamamoto. The results reveal the
importance of monetary policy instruments for the job creation environment
where percent increases in the level of national activities, inflation and exports
lead to reduction of unemployment and also reveal that the direct investments
made in the did not contribute to the generation of workplaces. There is
evidence that dynamic shocks in the labor market take 4 - 7 months to return to
equilibrium unemployment levels.