TITLE:
Forecasting the Next Dry Cargo Shipping Depression beyond 2018
AUTHORS:
Alexandros M. Goulielmos
KEYWORDS:
1929-1937, 1981-1987 and 2008-2016 Shipping Depressions, Zannetos Paradox, Forecasting Shipping Depressions, V-Statistic, Hurst Exponent, Alpha Coefficient, Rescaled Range Analysis, Radial Basis Functions
JOURNAL NAME:
Modern Economy,
Vol.10 No.7,
July
12,
2019
ABSTRACT: The purpose of this research was to forecast next maritime depression beyond 2018. For this we used the nonlinear forecasting method:
“Radial Basis Functions” [1] through the computer program NLTSA [2] allowing a
prediction for 20 steps ahead. Forecasting applied to a freight rate dry cargo
index since 1741 [3] and to alpha1 coefficient. The lowest alpha predicted was 1.01 in 2038. Stopford’s dry cargo
index forecast will be at its lowest point, of 114 (100 = 1947) units, in 2034
and 2035. Three cycles forecast to last 5, 5, and 4 years (2019-2038). Thus
shipping has to learn to live with cycles… and depressions, but perhaps it is
better if knowing them in advance.