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Mandelbrot, B. (1964) The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices. In: Cootner, P., Ed., The Random Character of Stock Prices, MIT Press, Cambridge, 369-412.

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• TITLE: Forecasting the Next Dry Cargo Shipping Depression beyond 2018

  AUTHORS: Alexandros M. Goulielmos

  KEYWORDS: 1929-1937, 1981-1987 and 2008-2016 Shipping Depressions, Zannetos Paradox, Forecasting Shipping Depressions, V-Statistic, Hurst Exponent, Alpha Coefficient, Rescaled Range Analysis, Radial Basis Functions

  JOURNAL NAME: Modern Economy, Vol.10 No.7, July 12, 2019

  ABSTRACT: The purpose of this research was to forecast next maritime depression beyond 2018. For this we used the nonlinear forecasting method: “Radial Basis Functions” [1] through the computer program NLTSA [2] allowing a prediction for 20 steps ahead. Forecasting applied to a freight rate dry cargo index since 1741 [3] and to alpha1 coefficient. The lowest alpha predicted was 1.01 in 2038. Stopford’s dry cargo index forecast will be at its lowest point, of 114 (100 = 1947) units, in 2034 and 2035. Three cycles forecast to last 5, 5, and 4 years (2019-2038). Thus shipping has to learn to live with cycles… and depressions, but perhaps it is better if knowing them in advance.