TITLE:
Predictions of El Niño, La Niña and Record Low Chicago Temperature by Sunspot Number
AUTHORS:
Tai-Jin Kim
KEYWORDS:
Prediction, El Niño, La Niña, Record Low Chicago Temperature, Sunspot Number
JOURNAL NAME:
Natural Science,
Vol.11 No.6,
June
30,
2019
ABSTRACT: The
El Nino Index, defined as 4 intensities (very
strong, strong, moderate, weak) in Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), was positively
correlated with the average sunspot number at each intensity. The La Niña
Index, defined as 3 intensities (strong, moderate, weak) in ONI, was negatively correlated with the average sunspot number from
1954 to 2017. It appears that very strong El Niño events occur frequently
during the maximal sunspot number while strong La Niña events more often occur
during the minimal sunspot number. Since greenhouse-gas is continuously
increased, it is therefore proposed that the maximal sunspot number is a major
parameter for prediction of El Niño while the minimal sunspot number applies in
the same way for La Niña. El Nino/La Nina events can be classified as four
typical cases depending upon the submarine volcanic activities at seamounts in
Antarctica and South America. The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) of the South
and Central Americas are warmer than SST of East Australian Current (EAC), due
to the strong volcanic eruptions in the Seamounts and the Ridges in South and
Central Americas. This results in the Central Pacific Current (CPC) flowing
from east to west due to the second law of thermodynamics for thermal flow from
hot source to cold sink. In contrast the opposite direction is made if SST in
EAC is warmer than SST in the Central/South American Seamounts and Ridges, due
to the strong volcanic eruptions in the Antarctic Seamounts and Ridges. Chicago
was selected as a case study for the relationship between extreme cold weather
conditions and minimal sunspot number. Previous attempts at predicting
weather patterns in
Chicago have largely failed. The years of the record low temperatures in
Chicago were significantly correlated with the years of the minimal sunspot
number from 1873 to 2019. It is forecast that there may occur a weak La Niña in
2019 and another record low temperature in Chicago in January of 2020 due to
the phase of the minimal sunspot number in 2019. It may be possible to predict
very strong El Nino events with the year of maximal
sunspot number as El Niño Index (R2 = 0.7363) and the
years of strong volcanic eruption in the Galapagos Hot Spot (GHS) (R2 = 0.9939), respectively.
An El Niño event is thus expected during the year of strong volcanic eruption
in the GHS. Strong La Niña events can be expected during the year of minimal
sunspot number with La Niña Index (R2 = 0.9922). Record
low temperatures in Chicago can be also predicted (R2 = 0.9995) during
the year of the minimal sunspot number, as was recently the case in January,
2019.