TITLE:
After the Crash: Oil Price Recovery and LNG Project Viability
AUTHORS:
Uyiosa Omoregie
KEYWORDS:
Oil, Gas, Price, LNG, Viability
JOURNAL NAME:
Natural Resources,
Vol.10 No.5,
May
30,
2019
ABSTRACT: Are liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects currently viable? LNG projects viability has been shown to be sensitive to crude oil price. Crude oil prices fell below the 2009-2014 five-year average in early September 2014. The drastic fall in price was from a monthly peak of $112 per barrel (bbl) in June 2014, falling to $62/bbl in December. Since 2016 the oil and gas market has gone through a period of rebalancing, resulting in modest recovery in prices. Oil price recovery reached a peak of $85/bbl in October 2018. Gas prices have also achieved similar modest price recovery. The industry has now entered what appears to be an expansion phase: The five largest international oil companies exceeded expectations for 2018. A window of opportunity may exist for new LNG projects to commence production in anticipation of an undersupplied market (2025-2035). Viability of new LNG projects will depend on future oil price. LNG projects can provide long and stable dividends for shareholder companies, certain risks found in tight oil and upstream projects are absent.