TITLE:
Climate Suitability and Vulnerability of Winter Wheat Planting in Gansu under the Background of Global Warming
AUTHORS:
Xing Wang, Yuhe Ji, Guangsheng Zhou, Sheng Wang, Xiaoying Yao
KEYWORDS:
Winter Wheat, Climate Suitability and Vulnerability, Maxent Model, Threshold Curve
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection,
Vol.7 No.4,
April
29,
2019
ABSTRACT: Winter wheat is the main food crop in China. Gansu Province is a traditional
winter wheat growing area, and its planting range is limited by the thermal
conditions of winter. The average temperature in Gansu Province increased
by 0.28°C per decade, higher than the China’s and global average, and the
warming in winter was more obvious. Therefore, it is necessary to study the
climate suitability and vulnerability of winter wheat planting in Gansu. In this
paper, the maximum entropy model Maxent and Arcgis software are used to
select six major climatic factors including annual total radiation, annual precipitation,
the warmest monthly average temperature, the coldest monthly
average temperature, annual average temperature, and annual extreme minimum
temperature, which construct winter wheat planting distribution-climate
relationship model that studies the climate suitability and vulnerability of winter
wheat during the period 1961-2015. Studies have shown that the average
cold weather and annual extreme minimum temperature are the most important
climatic factors affecting winter wheat in Gansu, which can reflect the low
temperature conditions that winter wheat can tolerate. However, the main
winter wheat planting areas in Gansu Province are distributed in arid and
semi-arid rain-fed agriculture areas. Precipitation and total annual radiation
are also very important constraints. At the same time, climate change has little
effect on winter wheat in Gansu Province, and the area of suitable area
fluctuates slightly. It shows moderate adaptation in each evaluation period.