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Hemming, D., Buontempo, C., Burke, E., Collins, M., & Kaye, N. (2010). How Uncertain Are Climate Model Projections of Water Availability Indicators across the Middle East? Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 368, 5117-5135.
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/368/1931/5117.full.pdf

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