TITLE:
Prediction Method of Deep Horizontal Displacement of Slope Soil Based on Damped Holt-Winters Model
AUTHORS:
Kai Yan, Jiaye Wu, Yingqian Zhang, Lu Yang, Yixiong Zhang, Haiyang Yuan, Ying Huang
KEYWORDS:
Safety Engineering, Deep Horizontal Displacement of Slope Soil, Damped Holt-Winters Model, Forecasting
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Service Science and Management,
Vol.12 No.3,
April
15,
2019
ABSTRACT: The prediction of deep horizontal displacement of slope
soil is an important part of slope deformation monitoring, which has important
guiding significance for the prevention of slope safety accidents. Holt-Winters
model is suitable to predict the data series of deep horizontal displacement of
slope soil, which show both trend growth and seasonal fluctuation. Firstly, this
paper selected the data set as the original data for empirical analysis which is deep horizontal displacement of soil after
pretreatment from the specific slope monitoring project, then used the Holt-winters’ damped model to perform data mining, finally, compared with the traditional prediction
methods including the neural-network model and the k-nearest neighbor
classification. The results show that the damped Holt-winters model has the
highest prediction accuracy.