TITLE:
A Brief History of Maritime Econometrics, 1934-2012
AUTHORS:
Alexandros M. Goulielmos
KEYWORDS:
Shipping Econometric Models, A Critical Survey 1934-2012, Suggestions for Further Research
JOURNAL NAME:
Modern Economy,
Vol.10 No.3,
March
20,
2019
ABSTRACT: This article reviews the seminal econometric1 models published
by maritime economists between 1934 and 2012, indicating the main mistakes
committed during this period, so that future research can avoid them. The
errors were spurious regression, identification and the false assumption that
maritime markets are sufficiently efficient, if co-integrated. Three
further mistakes are noted: the belief that a shipping firm is its vessel; the
assumption that a random walk is appropriate for modeling tanker markets, and
the assumption that shipping markets are random and linear. Koopmans was
correct (in 1939) in stating that the discrepancy (surplus/deficit) between supply and demand for ship space determines freight rates, something
that passed unnoticed until recently. The papers reviewed cast in four centers
-on the basis of the academic domicile of their authors: 1) the pioneering
Dutch Center, 1934-1939, 2) the Zannetos
Model, 1966, 3) the Norwegian Center, 1976-2012, and 4) the
Beenstock-Vergottis Model, 1985-1993 and English Center, 1987- 2002. Unfortunately,
each new shipping model rejected almost all previous ones and consequently the
research did not build a clear picture. Moreover, maritime markets are not perfectly competitive, and most
maritime economic concepts need a re-definition, including: shortrun, shipowners expectations and marginal cost.