TITLE:
Estimation of Drought Change Trends in Northeast China in 2020-2050 and Its Impact on Maize Yield
AUTHORS:
Zhulei Dong, Yanling Song, Jinfeng Tian
KEYWORDS:
Northeast China, CMIP5 Model, SPEI, Corn Yield, Trend Estimation
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection,
Vol.6 No.12,
December
29,
2018
ABSTRACT: Based on the results of nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) coupling models, the temperature and precipitation data of 114 stations in Northeast China were compared and analyzed. The simulation effect of CMIP5 model on precipitation and temperature in Northeast China was evaluated. The research shows that the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Models (GGFDL-ESM2G) have the best simulation effect on precipitation and temperature in Northeast China. Based on the SPEI index, the relationship between the drought trend of maize growing season and the yield change rate of maize in Northeast China was analyzed, and the future drought (2020-2050) and corn yield in Northeast China were estimated. The cumulative Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) analysis of the northeast maize growing season (May-September) shows that the drought in the northeastern region showed an intensifying trend from 1980 to 2010, especially in the first ten years of the 21st century. The cumulative SPEI index has a significant positive correlation with the yield of maize in Northeast China, and has a certain indicator effect on the yield of maize in Northeast China. The three scenarios of GFDL-ESM2G model show that under the three scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), the warming in Northeast China is significant; under the RCP4.5 scenario, the precipitation in Northeast China is increasing; in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, precipitation is presented and reduces the trend of drought. Estimates of drought trends in Northeast China show that under the RCP4.5 climate scenario, the drought in Northeast China showed a slowing trend from 2020 to 2050. Under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, the drought in Northeast China showed an increasing trend. Under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, the yield change rate of maize in Northeast China showed a downward trend, indicating that climate warming caused the drought in Northeast China to increase, which had a negative impact on corn yield increase. In severe drought years, drought may cause northeast corn production seriously reduced. However, under the RCP4.5 scenario, drought has little effect on corn yield.