TITLE:
Research on Dynamic Relationship between Exchange Rate and Stock Price—Based on GARCH-in-Mean Model
AUTHORS:
Weihan Zhang, Peijuan Yang
KEYWORDS:
Exchange Rate, Stock Price, GARCH-in-Mean Model
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Service Science and Management,
Vol.11 No.6,
December
28,
2018
ABSTRACT: The reform of the exchange rate system has brought epoch-making changes to China’s capital market. Based on the monthly exchange rate of the US dollar against RMB exchange rate and the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCI) from June 2005 to August 2017, this paper empirically tests the dynamic relationship between China’s exchange rate and stock price using the GARCH-in-Mean model. The empirical results show that China’s stock market doesn’t have a high level of openness to foreign investment; there is a two-way influence mechanism between China’s stock price and exchange rate market, and the appreciation of RMB will bring the stock market down; from the perspective of market fluctuations, the uncertainty of the exchange rate will not have an effect on the trend of the stock market, and the risk transmission mechanism between the two markets is not significant.