TITLE:
Maritime Econometrics: Models of Dry Cargo Ships and Tankers, 1996-2005 Survey
AUTHORS:
Alexandros M. Goulielmos
KEYWORDS:
A Survey of Maritime Econometric Models: 1996-2005, Statistical Errors Committed by Maritime Economists, Random Walk, Mention of “Maritime Economics”—Papers since 1967—A Selected List
JOURNAL NAME:
Modern Economy,
Vol.9 No.12,
December
19,
2018
ABSTRACT: We reviewed the most representative papers belonging
to “maritime econometrics” published between 1996 and 2005: a scientific branch
in-the-making, we believe. The papers covered the econometrics of the dry-cargo
and liquid-cargo ships. We also mentioned a number of papers selected from a
paper of Prof. Button in 2005. We traced the
progress of “general econometrics” (since the “ARCH model” in 1982) in
connection with its application to Maritime Markets (1996). We saw that the
progress was made through doctoral theses of maritime economists (since 1996), who
applied general econometrics to shipping markets. We also traced the evolution of this
applied branch of economics from 1967 to 2005. Maritime economists during this period committed certain mistakes: 1)
they relied on “spurious regressions”; 2) they did not apply any tests for
stationarity, and 3) they took “co-integration” as a sufficient condition for
Random Walk-RW. However, they—unfairly, we believe—have been criticized (by
Button) for: 1) using only short run models or, even worse, sticking to
Marshall’s “market period”; 2) ignoring “institutional economics”; 3) copying
their models from others, producing nothing new and original... They were also criticized for using
almost exclusively GARCH model, and for being deceived in their conclusions by
data, because longer data in calendar time supports RW, and data in days, weeks
reject the existence of random walk, even belonging to same period and market…