TITLE:
Maritime Economic Modeling: A Survey, 2006-2016
AUTHORS:
Alexandros M. Goulielmos
KEYWORDS:
Maritime Economic Modeling’s Survey—2006-2016, Maritime Economic Research Trends and Methods—1973-2012, Maritime Economic Seminal Papers 1981-2016, Papers on Maritime Economic Forecasting, Dry Cargo and Tankers—2004-2016, A Description of Maritime Economic Cycle
JOURNAL NAME:
Modern Economy,
Vol.9 No.12,
December
13,
2018
ABSTRACT: We surveyed quite a number of papers (~60), where
one third of them belonged to maritime economic dynamic systems, meaning multi
variable models. The emphasis we placed was on works published the last 11
years or so (2006-2016). In addition, we provided a general picture of maritime
economic research from 1973 to 2013. The survey had to be combined with
advances in General Econometrics. As a result and despite long delays maritime economists (Glen et al. [1] applied the VAR—vector autoregressive (1987-1988)
model due to Sims [2]. But this was not the only one as co-integration [3] [4] dominated the scene given that SEM-simultaneous equations model had defects
in relation to exogenous variables. Moreover, VEC—the vector error correction
model and a representation of VAR appeared based on Granger’s representation
theorem. The models for 2006-2016 were 36 including 5 for maritime futures
after 2003 and 7 on forecasting (2003-2016). A description of a shipping cycle has been given
with the presence of time.