TITLE:
Forecast of Maize Production in Henan Province
AUTHORS:
Bingjun Li, Xiaoxiao Zhu
KEYWORDS:
Grey System Theory, GM (1, 1) Model, Markov Model, HP Filter Method, Maize
JOURNAL NAME:
American Journal of Plant Sciences,
Vol.9 No.11,
October
29,
2018
ABSTRACT: Considering
the influence of meteorological factors on maize production, in order to
improve the yield of maize in Henan Province, a grey combination model is
constructed to predict the yield of maize in Henan Province. Firstly, the yield
of maize in 2017 is obtained by GM (1, 1) model; secondly, the trend yield of
maize is obtained by HP filter method, then the meteorological yield of maize
is obtained, and the yield of maize reduction is determined according to the
meteorological yield. Combined with Markov model, the maize yield reduction in
various cities in Henan Province is forecasted. Finally, based on the reduction
of production, policy recommendations are made for maize production in Henan Province.