TITLE:
Odds Ratio & Relative Risk Ratio of Buoy Conditions for Storms in the Atlantic Basin
AUTHORS:
Joy Marie D’Andrea, Rebecca Dyanne Wooten, Wendy Amanda Pogoda
KEYWORDS:
Hurricanes, Parametric Analysis, Statistics, Probability Distributions, Odds Ratio
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Statistics,
Vol.8 No.5,
September
11,
2018
ABSTRACT: The
purpose of this paper is to bring awareness to the general public that certain
conditions that occur at a buoy in the Atlantic Basin, such as wind located at
the buoy, pressure located at a buoy, water temperature located at a buoy,
atmospheric pressure located at a buoy, may be useful in helping predict when a
hurricane could possibly hit the state of Florida in the future. One of the goals
of this paper is to bring new statistical methods to investigate and analyze
data, which will create better predicable measures in determining when a
hurricane will possibly hit the state of Florida. In this paper, the topics of binary
logistic regression and multinomial regression modeling are discussed in
reference to their outcomes of both the odds ratio and relative risk ratio
respectively. The coefficients from these models will show which prospective
buoy conditions are possibly more responsible for indication of a storm being
present in the Atlantic Basin. In this paper, the data that was used and
compiled into a larger data set came from two different sources. First, the hurricane
data for the years 1992-2013
came from Unisys Weather site (Atlantic Basin Hurricanes data) and the buoy
data has been available from the National Buoy Center. In this paper, the
variables of interest are: storm present, buoy wind speed, buoy
pressure, buoy atmospheric temperature, buoy water temperature and buoy wind
direction. The buoy conditions are the buoy wind, the buoy wind direction, the
buoy pressure, buoy atmospheric temperature and the buoy water temperature.