TITLE:
Bilateral Export Demand Function of India: An Empirical Analysis
AUTHORS:
Aruna Kumar Dash, Subhendu Dutta, Rashmi Ranjan Paital
KEYWORDS:
Export Demand Function, ARDL, India
JOURNAL NAME:
Theoretical Economics Letters,
Vol.8 No.11,
August
15,
2018
ABSTRACT: In this paper, we examine
the determinants of bilateral export demand function of India during
1993:Q1-2015:Q1. The starting point of our study is 1993:Q1 by keeping into
consideration that RBI implemented market determined managed floating flexible
exchange rate system during that period. We have employed Auto Regressive
Distributed Lag (ARDL) model by using the macroeconomic variables such as real
exports, foreign income, nominal exchange rate (Rupee-Dollar) and relative
price. We found there exists a long run equilibrium relationship between real exports, foreign income,
exchange rate and relative price. In our empirical analysis, we found that in
the long run and short run, real exports are influenced more by foreign income
followed by relative price. Foreign income carries a positive sign and is statistically significant,
which implies that 1% increase in foreign income will increase real export by
1.63% in the long run. Likewise, relative price carries a negative sign and is statistically significant
which implies 1%
decrease in relative prices that will increase real exports by 0.22% in the long run. The nominal exchange
rate carries a negative sign and is statistically significant (in both short
run and long run), which
suggests that
depreciation of nominal exchange rate would not stimulate the volume of export
during our study period. Hence, for policy point of view if any policy makers
want to promote exports by depreciating, the rupee will not give fruitful results.