TITLE:
Impact of Ambient Temperature on Electricity Demand of Dhaka City of Bangladesh
AUTHORS:
Arif Istiaque, Shahidul Islam Khan
KEYWORDS:
Electricity Consumption, Temperature Rise, Time Series Forecasting, Statistical Regression
JOURNAL NAME:
Energy and Power Engineering,
Vol.10 No.7,
July
9,
2018
ABSTRACT: Per capita electricity consumption of Bangladesh is 400 KWh. Of the total population of 160 million, only 40 percent has the access of using electricity. Dhaka city consumes about 40 - 45 percent of the total electricity generation of the country. This study reports the trend of electricity use in the Dhaka city with emphasis on the impact of changing temperature due to urbanization and weather change. Hourly data of electricity demand of Dhaka city and the temperature profile of the city for a period of thirty months have been used for this study. To relate weather data like temperature, humidity, wind speed, wind direction, atmospheric pressure, dew point and visibility etc. with electricity demand of the city about 16,508 data between 2011 and 2017 have been considered. A statistical regression has been done to establish a relation between them. From this study it is found that reduction of only 1°C air temperature could save 81 MV of electricity consumption in Dhaka city. A time series forecast has been done to estimate probable temperature change and subsequent electricity consumption up to year 2020. From the study it has been established that the temperature dependence of electricity consumption in Dhaka city is about 75%.