TITLE:
Analysis and Evaluation to a State’s Fragility
AUTHORS:
Zirui Su, Yuting Nie, Fei Xie
KEYWORDS:
Fragility, Fuzzy Mathematics, Time Series Forecasting, Grey Forecast
JOURNAL NAME:
International Journal of Modern Nonlinear Theory and Application,
Vol.7 No.1,
March
26,
2018
ABSTRACT: Climate change is a global focus over the decades. It triggers many environment issues frequently, even serious natural disasters. The potential effects of the climate change are worse than itself. Many of these effects will gradually weaken the structure of society and government. As a result, the broken governments will turn into fragile states which refer to those states that are not able or choose not to provide the basic essentials to its people. We develop the fuzzy mathematics evaluation model to analyze the problem and evaluate the degree of a country’s fragility, and we definite the fragility evaluation levels through the results in the model. In addition, we also apply our model to Yemen and compare the different situations whether considering climate change or not. Then we put our eyes on South Africa, a getting-warmer country in Africa. We construct the second model—Time series forecasting model, to grasp the changing fragility trend in South Africa and make prediction to see time and ways the fragility degree will change. Furthermore, we modify the forecasting model and use a brand new third model which is called grey model, to figure out the importance of Somalia governmental aid along with intervention by predicting that the arrival of drought in Somalia will be slowed down through positive response from the government.