TITLE:
Prediction of Container Throughput in China
AUTHORS:
Zhao Jin, Yaozong Ding
KEYWORDS:
Container Port, Throughput, Time Series Analysis, SARIMA Model
JOURNAL NAME:
Chinese Studies,
Vol.7 No.1,
February
1,
2018
ABSTRACT: In this paper, we will use the time series analysis
method to predict the throughput of the research, through the establishment of
time series SARIMA model, using the January-February 2017 domestic container
throughput statistics of the main container port forecast from March 2017 to
December 2020 container throughput data and analyze the trend of the throughput
of major container ports in China in the coming year according to the forecast
results. At the same time, we will use R software to analyze the time series of
the throughput of China’s major container ports. By decomposing the time series
and correcting the seasonal differences of the data, a seasonally revised time
series chart is obtained. Based
on the above analysis, this paper predicts that by 2020 China’s major container
port throughput will be at the level of 250 million TEU-270 million TEU.