TITLE:
Risk Factors Analysis of Criminals Escape from Prison Based on Interpretative Structural Modelling
AUTHORS:
Yue Song
KEYWORDS:
Urban Public Facilities, Risk Mitigation, Risk Factors, Interpretative Structural Modelling (ISM)
JOURNAL NAME:
Advances in Applied Sociology,
Vol.7 No.12,
December
5,
2017
ABSTRACT: Urban public facilities play essential roles during the operating process of cities. How to prevent and mitigate emergencies which affect the urban public facilities is the focus of urban emergency management. However, the risk factors of emergencies in urban public facilities are obscure and numerous. Besides, one risk factor influences or interacts with one another. That presents challenges to mitigate these emergencies which need to eliminate the risk factors in order to achieve the goals of risk prevention and controlling. In this research, a prison in Guangdong Province in China is investigated as an empirical research. The main research problem is how to prevent the criminals’ escape emergency in the urban public facilities which is through analysing the interactive risk factors. First, all of the risk factors that may affect the criminals’ escape emergency were identified from four dimensions, such as human behavior, equipment and facilities, environment, security management. Second, the interactive and influence relationships among all the risk factors were evaluated by a group of experts. Third, according to the Interpretative Structural Modelling (ISM), all the risk factors and influence relationships among them are represented and analyzed. The results show that the multi-level hierarchical Interpretative Structural Modelling is a powerful way to reveal and understand how these risk factors lead to criminals’ escape in this prison. This research is of great significance to tackle with complex emergencies in urban public facilities effectively by analyzing risk factors. Moreover, it provides a novel way to design managerial suggestions of risk mitigation in urban public facilities emergency management.