TITLE:
Russia-Ukraine War Is Not a Simple Riddle
AUTHORS:
Jokull Johannesson
KEYWORDS:
Russia, Ukraine, Contingency Theory, War, Conflict, Global Affairs, Riddle
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Social Sciences,
Vol.5 No.10,
October
18,
2017
ABSTRACT: The Russia-Ukraine conflict is the most serious test of European security in
the 21st century and the forgone conclusion is that Russia can easily prevail in
the conflict, but this has not been the case. This article uses a contingency
theory approach to report findings on the riddle why Russia has not easily defeated
Ukraine. I report findings based on a contingency theoretical perspective
that indicates Russian victory is unlikely because of negative contingencies
having direct impact on the Russian economy including a sharp reduction
in the value of the Russian ruble, the potential for political loss of support of
the middle class for President Putin, diplomatic and political isolation and
danger of escalation of the war, affecting Russia to a greater degree than the
Ukraine.