TITLE:
Modeling and Forecasting of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Bangladesh Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Models
AUTHORS:
Abdur Rahman, Md Mahmudul Hasan
KEYWORDS:
Carbon Dioxide, Modeling, Forecasting, Time Series, ARIMA, Bangladesh
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Statistics,
Vol.7 No.4,
July
28,
2017
ABSTRACT: In the present paper, different Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
(ARIMA) models were developed to model the carbon dioxide emission by
using time series data of forty-four years from 1972-2015. The performance of
these developed models was assessed with the help of different selection
measure criteria and the model having minimum value of these criteria considered
as the best forecasting model. Based on findings, it has been observed
that out of different ARIMA models, ARIMA (0, 2, 1) is the best fitted model
in predicting the emission of carbon dioxide in Bangladesh. Using this best
fitted model, the forecasted value of carbon dioxide emission in Bangladesh,
for the year 2016, 2017 and 2018 as obtained from ARIMA (0, 2, 1) was obtained
as 83.94657 Metric Tons, 89.90464 Metric Tons and 96.28557 Metric
Tons respectively.