TITLE:
How to Approach Real Mathematical Modeling in Surge Capacity: Clinical Review
AUTHORS:
Ali Ziaee, Shervin Assari, Helia Ghanean, A. Jalali, Youssef Saleem Abboud
KEYWORDS:
Surge, Capacity, Disaster, Mathematical, and Modeling
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Emergency Medicine,
Vol.5 No.2,
June
26,
2017
ABSTRACT: Objectives: Science of surge is one of most important topics in the realm of disaster preparedness. Since 2006, after Academic Emergency Medicine (AEM) Consensus Conference, few articles with quantitative data address decision making in surge capacity. The aim of this article is looking forward to the facts about mathematical modeling and proposes real modeling in decision making to have better outcome. Methods: Literature Research was performed on database for the last ten years (2007-2017). Articles with mathematical modeling were separated and classified based on the usage of them in the field. Results: All current mathematical studies compared based on pre-hospital and hospital setting and flexibility in change of global level of care in time. Integrated model of sigmoid curve and HASC (Hospital Acute Care Surge Capacity) with name B-H integrated modeling in two-hour interval proposed. Conclusion: This study shows dynamic process of disaster planning based on outcome and reality. The proposed model makes surge capacity more predictable and adjustable.